Wikinvest Wire

Its source of funds comes from issuing cash

Saturday, May 02, 2009

Sometimes it's funny to read how economists describe what the Federal Reserve is doing in their ongoing quest to save the world from the effects of global deleveraging which they both enabled and condoned. This story by an anonymous economist at The Economist blazes a new trail in describing the massive increase in the Fed's balance sheet - how it's a good thing.

THE Federal Reserve does not set out to make bumper profits. But its 2008 annual accounts, released on April 23rd, would turn many a hedge-fund manager green with envy.

Like Wall Street’s finest, the Fed makes money on a spread. Its main source of funds comes from issuing cash, since currency in circulation is, in effect, an interest-free loan by the public to the central bank. The interest it earns on its loans and securities is almost pure profit, or “seigniorage,” most of which it remits to the Treasury. Last year the central bank reported a whopping $43 billion in operating income.
That should make you all feel better - the Fed's turning a profit.

The fact that it buys Treasuries with money it borrows from the Treasury Department shouldn't minimize the importance of the central bank's bottom line, nor should the idea that a good portion of the central bank's $1.4 trillion increase in assets has been purchased with money created "out of thin air".

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Barney Frank in 2005: What housing bubble?

Friday, May 01, 2009

Via Patrick.net.

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Mortgage lender blowback

Two stories in today's Wall Street Journal tell of a legal system that has become increasingly irritated by what the nation's mortgage lenders have left in the wake of the late, great housing bubble. First, from Indio, California, this report on how a law passed last year allows banks to be charged with a criminal misdemeanor if their foreclosed properties start to look trashy.

The upshot is that faraway banks have become the de facto landlords of Indio, and people here say the absentee lenders are letting the whole valley fall apart. Houses "look like dust bowls," says Gene Gilbert, the mayor pro tem, who thinks a glut of run-down homes may depress his hometown's local market long after the recession ends.

Criminalizing things like algae in a pool has given Mr. Ramos [the local police chief] a stick to make lenders snap to attention. Without that threat, the police chief says, "far-off banks, billion-dollar corporations, they could simply ignore us."
Isn't it about time that banks start abandoning foreclosed properties in large numbers, turning ownership back over to the local government?

Maybe not in Indio where the median home price is still well over a hundred thousand dollars, but, in other parts of the country, where prices are much lower, this would make sense.

Thousand of miles to the east in sunny Florida, another of the many former housing bubble locales, the Journal reports($) that former Countrywide CEO Angelo Mozilo was in the news again. It seems that a lawsuit filed by the state Attorney General regarding deceptive lending practices was remanded back to the local court where the environment is expected to be less favorable to the Orange Man.
This week, a U.S. District Court judge remanded a lawsuit against Mr. Mozilo, filed by Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum, back to Broward County Circuit Court. While the action is a procedural move, it increases the possibility that Mr. Mozilo, at one time the head of the nation's largest mortgage lender, could appear in court in the state of Florida. The state alleges that Mr. Mozilo engaged in deceptive and unfair trade practices involving mortgage loans made to state borrowers.

If Mr. Mozilo's case does go to trial, he would be the highest-profile mortgage executive to face such legal action since the mortgage-market meltdown began. "Angelo Mozilo should absolutely face a Florida court and Florida's citizens for his business practices, especially those which victimized Florida homeowners," Attorney General Bill McCollum said in a statement. Mr. McCollum added that his office "will continue to aggressively pursue its case against Mr. Mozilo."
Having been mentioned here at this blog on dozens of occasions in recent years, the world's largest Oompa Loompa is sometimes missed but, normally, that feeling passes quickly.

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U.S. manufacturing "less bad"

The U.S. manufacturing sector shrunk at a slower rate in April than in March, back to a pace of contraction that is normally associated with normal recessions, causing some pundits to erroneously apply the "less bad" label to yet another economic statistic.
IMAGE Not dwelling too much about the nature of the chart above, where numbers above and below 50 indicate expansion and contraction, respectively, you could easily convince yourself that conditions got better last month, not worse.

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Have you seen M3 lately?

Not having looked at the M3 statistics in quite a while, the broadest measure of the nation's money supply that was discontinued by the government but which has been reconstructed over at NowAndFutures, it's not surprising to see that the growth rate is down sharply.
IMAGE What is surprising is that, for all the talk of deflation these days, M3 has increased by about a trillion dollars since last fall when we entered the current phase of the financial crisis.

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Friday morning links

TOP STORIES
Bank Stress Test Results Delayed as Conclusions Debated - Bloomberg
Chrysler's bankruptcy path is uncharted, but GM could follow - LA Times
The war over Chrysler: A bailout built in Ottawa - Globe & Mail
Everyone is wrong, again – 1981 in Reverse - iTulip
Bank shareholders: Changing course - Economist
Third gold sales pact to plant flag of support - Reuters
Where did all the bailout money go? - CSM
A Primer on a Chrysler Bankruptcy - NY Times

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil falls below $51 amid weak consumer spending - AP
Gold Declines as Equity Rally Reduces Investment Appeal - Bloomberg
Financial crisis brings sobriety to Buffett's capitalist jamboree - Guardian
Is gold's April slide just a beginning? - Commodity Online
Pumping and Dumping the 401(k) Crowd - Max Blog
Chinese Gold Revisited - Hard Assets Investor

ECONOMY
Odds of Depression (and Various Other Things) - NY Times
In Sharp Contraction, Basis for an Upswing - Washington Post
Carmakers' woes hitting state jobs, revenue - SF Gate
Bankruptcy Hits Home in Auto Heartland - Washington Post
College-bound students run into financial wall - LA Times

INTERNATIONAL
Japan's jobless rate up, household spending down - AP
MPs blame bankers for 'astonishing mess' - Telegraph
China's gold buy raises eyebrows for all the right reasons - MarketWatch
India Exports Plunge as Recession Hurts Demand - Bloomberg
China Manufacturing Expands, Adding to Recovery - Bloomberg
Bankruptcies rise to record high - Guardian
Taxes: A nasty Brown mess - Economist
Europe's age crisis begins to bite - Telegraph

HOUSING
Mortgage reduction bill fails in Senate - LA Times
Home prices still have a way to go to hit bottom - TampaBay.com
Housing collapse blamed for industrial market’s woes - LV Sun
Housing market woes continue - Purchasing.com

FED/TREASURY/BANKING
Government nervous about stress test results - USA Today
The Fed: The hedge fund of Foggy Bottom - Economist
Regional Banks Could Need Billions More - MoneyNews.com
Securitisation: The torpor of the TALF - Economist

INTERESTING
Of Loos and Language - NY Times
Stanford tries to surrender to federal authorities - AP
Engineering suddenly hot at universities - CSM
Talk Is Cheap, if You Ask - NY Times

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Back from Bend... Again...

Thursday, April 30, 2009

We are now back from what was, thankfully, our last exploratory trip to Oregon, having signed a one-year lease for the place you see below atop Awbrey Butte in Bend. The next time we go north, it will be with a moving truck and no return trip will be in the schedule. IMAGE Since last summer, we must have made about ten trips to Ashland, Medford, Eugene, Salem, Florence, and Grants Pass before finally making the last three journeys to Bend, the most recent one resulting in making a one-year commitment.

We're going to go for a year and see how it works out - the fact that it's been snowing there all week would be cause for concern for some, but we like the snow. Whether or not we like the snow enough for it to be coming down this late in the year every year remains to be seen.

As always, it was quite an adventure and, talking to the locals, you sometimes get a real sense of dread, especially when the conversation turns to real estate. Cessna just announced that they were closing a factory in Bend, a decision that is expected to result in the loss of another 109 jobs, all of which, presumably, paid more than that of ski lift operators or golf course marshalls.

On the radio this morning, they said the unemployment rate had risen to 17 percent in the county but, as we entered northern California, another radio station cited a 19 percent unemployment rate in two of the counties we passed through on the way home.

The employment picture looks pretty bleak whereever you go on the West Coast - increasingly you hear things like "two counties in California, two counties in Michigan, and one county in Oregon headed the nation's unemployment..."

It's kind of sad because most people really don't know what hit them - they just look around and see home prices dropping like a rock, jobless rates soaring, and the apparent end to what was thought to be an enduring, spendthrift way of life.

When we had some time to kill, we stopped into a couple of private golf courses in the area and inquired about membership, just to get an idea about what they were charging these days if we happened to be so inclined.

The number of folks cutting back on discretionary expenses has, generally speaking, put a pretty big crimp in running a private golf club these days. Declines of between 20 and 50 percent seem to be commonplace - home prices, golf club membership, and any other thing that people think twice about spending money on, or so it seems.

It will be an interesting next year - we move a month from tomorrow.

Please understand that, due to family matters and our upcoming move, things haven't exactly been "normal" around here lately and that condition is not likely to change soon.

Hopefully, by the middle of June or so, we'll have settled into our new home and things will be back to normal again - whatever that is...

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The Q1 Gold Investment Digest

Always a sucker for a good chart, particularly when it involves precious metals, the one below in the most recent Gold Investment Digest from the World Gold Council is a doozy.
IMAGE The trade group's first quarter report on gold has some rather interesting statistics related to the quickly changing supply and demand situation.

As shown above, inflows to the many gold ETFs around the world have been brisk:

Investors bought 469 tonnes of gold via this channel, dwarfing the previous record, of 145 tonnes, set in the third quarter of last year. SPDR®Gold Shares (“GLD”) enjoyed the bulk of the inflows. The total amount of London Good Delivery bars held by the Trust increased to 1127 tonnes at the end of Q1 09, from 780 tonnes at the end of last year. The two Swiss listed gold ETFs (the ZKB Gold ETF and the Julius Baer Physical Gold Fund) enjoyed the next strongest inflows, rising by 37 tonnes and 32 tonnes respectively. Inflows into the gold ETFs continued to grow throughout the quarter, despite the downward correction in the gold price, indicating that, as in past price corrections, ETF holdings tend to be “sticky”.
It's kind of ridiculous just how big the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (NYSEArca:GLD) has become when compared to the nine other funds and they have certainly characterized the inventory correctly in light of recently faltering prices - "sticky" is the right word.

As noted here yesterday, just 23.2 tonnes of the almost 350 tonnes added earlier in the year have exited the trust as the gold price declined from almost $1,000 an ounce in early February to current prices of just over $900.

They had this to say about the many and varied rumors about trading on the COMEX:
The quarter was beset with stories either urging investors to take delivery of, or claiming investors had taken delivery of, large amounts of gold from COMEX, driven by widespread shortages of gold in the spot market. Some claimed that the COMEX warehouses might therefore run out of gold.

The reality was quite different. While there were (at times severe) shortages of coins and small bars during the quarter, there was no shortage of London Good Delivery Bars, the main trading vehicle in the global over-the-counter market. And with respect to COMEX stocks, both registered stocks on COMEX (gold which meets the standards for delivery and for which a receipt from an exchange-approved depository or warehouse has been issued) and eligible stocks (gold which meets the delivery standard but for which no receipt from an exchange-approved warehouse has been issued) increased over the quarter, to 2.94 million ounces and 5.94 million ounces, from 2.83 million ounces and 5.71 million ounces respectively. This took total COMEX stocks as a percentage of long positions to 38%, which is high by historical standards, rather than indicative of stocks that have been depleted by a run on physical gold at COMEX.
Geez... The folks at the World Gold Council should really get a hold of some of the officials over at the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to see how an industry trade group is really supposed to operate.

Here's a perfect example where they could add to the fervor over rising gold prices by citing some shoddy statistics about how the supply of gold is limited and "it's a good time to buy" but, instead, they pour cold water on one of the biggest stories this year in the gold community about the goings-on at the CRIMEX.

Maybe former NAR chief economist David Lereah could be hired as a consultant to help out.

The Gold Investment Digest goes on to discuss such important topics as gold's correlation with other asset classes, jewelry demand, mine supply, and central bank sales.

If you've never thumbed through this quarterly report, it really is worth a look.

Registration is required at the World Gold Council website to get a copy, but it's free.

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Roubini mocks the "green shoots"

From Justin Fox at Time Magazine:

Nouriel Roubini was one of the first people to start talking about this financial crisis and recession and gosh darnit if he's not going to be one of the last. He popped by this afternoon to talk to some TIME editors and writers. While he was here, he made fun of the notion that we're seeing "green shoots" in the economy—choosing instead to use the word "weeds." He picked apart one recent upbeat economic report (I won't mention which investment bank issued it), by pointing out that a minimal slowdown in the pace of house-price declines, a couple of less-dismal months of retail sales, and slightly less contraction in the manufacturing sector does not an economic recovery make.

He was equally as dismissive of the good first-quarter earnings many banks have reported. He pointed out that loan-loss reserves are actually in many cases on the relative decline—this Bloomberg story highlights that in the first quarter non-performing assets at Wells Fargo rose by 40% while loss reserves grew by just 5%. "We're going back like nothing ever happened," Roubini said. "It's pathetic."
It will be interesting to see if/when Roubini turns bullish.

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The other swine flu

From Tom Toles at the Washington Post:
IMAGE

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Thursday morning links

TOP STORIES
Swine Flu Case in Spain May Point to Global Pandemic - Bloomberg
Shareholders Oust Bank of America Chief as Chairman - NY Times
Chrysler Will File for Bankruptcy, White House Says - Bloomberg
Portfolio's Flameout, or How to Burn Money Fast - Time
Starbucks profit tops view, focus on value - Reuters
Dr. Doom is still all doomsday-like - Time
Why the stress tests really do matter - MSNBC
Swine flu deflation - Telegraph

MARKETS/INVESTING
Gold Falls, Poised for Monthly Drop - Bloomberg
Oil jumps above $51 on optimism recession slowing - AP
Dollar Drops as Equity Gains Reduce Haven Demand - Bloomberg
US in worst recession for 50 years - Telegraph
Beijing has 1,054 tonnes of gold now! - Commodity Online
CBGA Heebie-Jeebies - Kitco

ECONOMY
Consumer spending falls by 0.2 percent in March - AP
Initial Jobless Claims Fell 14,000 to 631,000 Last Week - Bloomberg
As Detroit Is Remade, the U.A.W. Stands to Gain - NY Times
Economy improving, but not better yet, Fed says - MarketWatch
A Reality Check for Economic Optimism - Wash. Post

INTERNATIONAL
European markets near 2009 highs, US set for gains - AP
New Zealand Cuts Key Interest Rate to 2.5% - Bloomberg
WHO warns swine flu threatening to become pandemic - CHINADaily
UK wages collapse at fastest rate in 60 years - Telegraph
British home prices fall 0.4% in April - MarketWatch
Euro Rises as Asian Stock Gains Spur Demand for Higher Yields - Bloomberg
Bank of Japan cuts its economic outlook for the fiscal year - MarketWatch
Taiwan Stocks Rise Most Since 1991 on China - Bloomberg

HOUSING
First-time buyers find deals, help perk up house sales - USA Today
Struggling Vacation Home Market Offers Rare Finds - BusinessWeek
Feds Offer More Help for Troubled Homeowners - Time
Mortgage Applications Drop to Mid-March Low - CNBC

FED/TREASURY/BANKING
Fed Keeps ‘Powder Dry’ While Waiting for End of Recession - Bloomberg
Flawed Credit Ratings Reap Profits as Regulators Fail - Bloomberg
The Importance of Paying Citigroup Bankers Bonuses - Time
Fed Keeps Purchase Targets Unchanged, Sees Stability - Bloomberg

INTERESTING
A budget cure: Marijuana taxes? - MSNBC
The Doggie Day Care Owner - Time
Derivatives Hit Austrian Railroad With Record Loss - AP
Judge won't let inmate change name to 'Sinner' - AP

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Autoworkers Compete to Keep Jobs

Wednesday, April 29, 2009

This crosses the line somehow (surely it can't be too popular in Michigan), but it's nice to see that they're apparently increasing their production budget over at The Onion.

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Fed plays chicken with bond market

It appears that Ben Bernanke and the boys at the Federal Reserve have decided to play a game of chicken with the bond market as their policy meeting came and went today with no change to the already announced plans to purchase U.S. Treasuries and other securities by the truckload.

Some analysts thought they'd add a second truck for this task, but it was not to be.

Recall that the short-term interest rate pedal has been nailed to the floorboard for months now so, if the Fed wants to influence financial markets it must now do so by announcing more money printing which, apparently, they don't feel the need to do at this time.

Following the release of the policy statement, prices for the benchmark ten-year Treasury plunged, pushing the yield up to a six-month high of 3.1 percent which, given the potential for soaring inflation during most of those ten years still sounds like way too low a return.

The last two Fed statements are shown below, all the changes in the text highlighted in red amounting to basically "no change" at all.
IMAGE

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Case Shiller home prices "less bad"

We're traveling this week, so, certain items like yesterday's Case Shiller report(.pdf) on home prices are being mentioned here with a bit of delay. Here's the updated 20-city graphic.
IMAGE The rate of decline appears to be slowing - only ten of the twenty cities reported a record annual plunge in prices! Poor Detroit fell off the chart here registering only 74.7 in February.

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Help is on the way for retirees

The Associated Press reports that millions of senior citizens will soon be getting their cut of the recent economic stimulus money. For some, it can't come soon enough.

More than 50 million retirees can expect to receive $250 payments from the government in the next few weeks as their share of the economic stimulus package enacted in February.
...
The payments are part of the $787 billion package of spending and tax cuts enacted in February to help boost the economy. They will go to people who receive Social Security, Supplemental Security Income, railroad retirement or veteran's disability benefits.
...
The goal of the stimulus package is to get people to spend money at a time when most are reducing spending and saving more. It makes sense to be frugal when the economy is in such bad shape, but it hurts the economy when everyone does it.
If Congress really wanted to help, they should pass a law to ban "the paradox of thrift". Then again, one could argue that the Federal Reserve is already taking care of that with their freakishly low interest rates that provide little or no return on savings.

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GDP shrinks at 6.1 percent rate in Q1

The Commerce Department reported that the U.S. economy contracted at a pace much faster than expected during the first quarter as business investment posted a record decline and exports of U.S. goods experienced their biggest drop in more than 40 years.
IMAGE Following the fourth quarter's 6.3 percent pace of contraction, the U.S. economy shrank at a seasonally adjusted annualized rate of 6.1 percent last quarter, surpassing the consensus estimate of minus 5.0 percent. This was the worst back-to-back performance in 60 years.

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Wednesday morning links

TOP STORIES
Economy shrinks at 6.1 percent pace in 1Q - AP
Fed Is Said to Seek Capital for at Least Six Banks - Bloomberg
Citigroup seeks permission to pay bonuses - Reuters
BofA CEO’s Support Erodes Ahead of Annual Meeting - Bloomberg
Feeling Secure, Some Banks Want to Be Left Alone - NY Times
GM's New Road Map: Partial Nationalization - Wash. Post
U.S. Reaches Deal With Chrysler Banks, People Say - Bloomberg
Buy Gold, not Gold shares - Commodity Online

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil rises above $50 with equities - Reuters
Gold edges up as weak dollar sparks buying - NineMSN
Hedge-Fund Bubble Bursts in Time for Swine Flu - Bloomberg
Bullion premiums ease for gold, silver: Got Gold Report - Stockhouse
Akshaya Tritiya fails to boost India gold sales - Commodity Online
Stealth stock bull market; sell in May and go away? - Stockhouse

ECONOMY
U.S. economy shrinks more than expected - Reuters
Home Vacancies Rise in U.S. to Record Amid Recession - Bloomberg
Home Prices in 20 U.S. Cities Declined at Slower Pace - Bloomberg
Outbreak Threatens Global Recovery - Wash. Post
Confdence Index Rises Most Since 2005 - Bloomberg

INTERNATIONAL
Europe's corporate giants feel heat from recession - Guardian
Peso Tumble, Swine Flu May Prompt Mexico to Tap IMF - Bloomberg
Abbey aids UK economy with £2.3bn of lending - Telegraph
London Ponders Its Future as Financial Powerhouse - NY Times
China Demand Means Asia Exporters May Be Past Worst - Bloomberg
Alistair Darling defends 50pc tax on high earners - Telegraph
Derivatives Hit Austrian Railroad With Record Loss - Bloomberg
Gazprom Q4 Profit Plummets 84% on Drop in Demand - Bloomberg

HOUSING
Phoenix Leads the Way Down in Home Prices - NY Times
Home prices less dismal, but still falling steeply - CSM
Housing Market Shows Some Life - Wash.Post
Housing: Coming In For A Landing? - Forbes

FED/TREASURY/BANKING
Fed likely to maintain credit push - AFP
Republican Senator Specter Announces Party Switch - Bloomberg
What the Fed is considering at this week's meeting - Guardian
Fed's Report Explores the Housing Market - AjaxWorld

INTERESTING
Cell Phone Ultrasound Device Like Trek 'Tricorder' - LiveScience
Chihuahua blown away by 70-mph winds reunited with owners - AP
Some Dinosaurs Survived the Asteroid Impact - LiveScience
Fear a high school reunion? Hire a stripper - Reuters

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Pushpin industry thrives in downturn

Tuesday, April 28, 2009

It's hard to argue with this logic about pushpins from the folks at The Onion.

With unemployment at its highest rate in 25 years and countless retirement savings wiped out by the collapse of the stock market, experts say the American pushpin industry may be the lone bright spot in an otherwise bleak financial landscape.

"Everyone knows that when the economy contracts, pushpin sales expand," said Paul Michelson, a pushpin analyst for Wells Fargo. "In uncertain times, they provide a sense of stability to those who just lost their jobs or may be late with their mortgage payments."

Added Michelson, "Pushpins are sharp, rigid, and enable you to attach thin items to the wall. People really gravitate toward that."

In times of prosperity, however, consumers tend to be more interested in high-ticket items such as flat-screen TVs or oil paintings. During economic booms, the pushpins go in the back of the junk drawer until hard times hit again.
I've used pushpins a lot more than usual over the last year. Anyone else?

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Guess the mid-year price of oil and gold!

Welcome to the sixth (wow! six already!) semi-annual "Guess the price of oil and gold contest" where readers can compete to win a free one-year subscription to the companion investment website Iacono Research. Past contests have produced the following results:
IMAGE There has been little movement in either the price of oil or gold since year-end, however, that could surely change in the weeks ahead.

The last contest was won by Dorcus' Daddy who is now enjoying the benefits of the subscription site, perhaps benefiting from some of the recent upward price movements (the model portfolio was up an even 7.0 percent so far in 2009 as of last Friday).

His "deflationary" guesses were closer than any other last time around and it was the bold call for $40 a barrel crude oil that sealed the deal as shown below.
Sadly, after placing in the top ten during the three prior contests, last time around your humble scribe fell to 70th place out of about 90 guesses. Note that if I ever did have the best guesses, I'd get braggin' rights only and the second place finisher would win the grand prize.

This time around the rules are the same as they've always been.

The contest is based on the combined percentage differences between the guessed values and the closing prices on June 30th, 2009 using the near-month (August) Nymex futures contract for WTI crude oil and the COMEX closing price for gold bullion.

Entries may be made either by posting them in the comments section of this post or sending mail to either tim-at-iaconoresearch.com or tliacono-at-yahoo.com. All entries must be received no later than May 12th, two weeks from today - there will be two more notices such as this one as reminders and current subscribers can win a free one-year extension to their existing subscription should their guesses come closest.

The winner will be announced on June 30th - good luck to all!

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To learn more about investing in natural resources using commonly traded ETFs, stocks, and mutual funds, see this description at Iacono Research. Or, sign up for a free trial.
IMAGE

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When "less bad" does not mean better

Has anyone really stopped to think about this whole "less bad" logic that has been sweeping the country after a number of economic indicators shifted from a near-vertical rate of decent to something less steep in the last month or so?

Just yesterday morning in the WSJ Ahead of the Tape column, it was spotted again when Tom Lauricella wrote, "Meanwhile, on the economic front the catchphrase in the last few weeks has been 'less bad,' meaning that the pace of the economic decline is lessening."

No! Less bad means that things are getting better. The graphic to the right makes that point rather clearly. If conditions are still declining, things are getting "more bad", not "less bad".

Perhaps Inigo Montoya put it best when he famously quipped "You keep using those words. I do not think it means what you think it means."

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Marc Faber on Bloomberg

The original Dr. Doom (preceding Roubini, Schiff, et al) talks about his good stock market call on March 6th and money printing by the Federal Reserve.


Favorite line: "Money printing lifts all boats, some more than others."

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Tuesday morning links

TOP STORIES
WSJ: Regulators urge BofA, Citi to boost capital - AP
Daimler Reaches Deal to Unload Chrysler Stake - NY Times
Mortgage "cramdown" laws needed: Warren - Reuters
Chrysler and General Motors Make New Bids to Survive - Time
Iraqi Oil: Black Gold or Black Hole? - The Oil Drum
Fiat Currency: A 38-year experiment in inflation - Credit Writedowns
Condé Nast to shut Portfolio magazine - MarketWatch
The Joker - Kunstler, CFN

MARKETS/INVESTING
Gold extends falls to below $900, ETF unchanged - NineMSN
Easing bottleneck shifts the bet on oil futures - MarketWatch
Hitting the Personal Financial Reset Button - BusinessWeek
Target funds miss the mark - Fortune
Dangerous Parallels - Butler, Investment Rarities
“9½ Weeks” - Saut, Raymond James

ECONOMY
People With Service Jobs Feel Economic Pain Early - NY Times
Raised pandemic risk fuels fears for world economy - Reuters
Treasury needs record $361B April-June borrowing - AP
Home Vacancies Rise in U.S. to Record Amid Recession - Bloomberg
Newspaper circulation declines 7% in last six months - MarketWatch

INTERNATIONAL
Asian Stocks Fall on Bank Capital Concern; Ping An, JFE Slump - Bloomberg
Tipping Point for U.S. Treasuries, From China's Perspective - Seeking Alpha
China's oil demand fell by nearly 6% in Q1 of 2009 - Business 24/7
China Demand Means Asia Exporters May Be Past Worst - Bloomberg
Economist sees urbanization as leading growth engine - CHINADaily
London Bankers Look for Exits After ‘Last Straw’ Tax Increase - Bloomberg
Japan's March retail sales decline less than feared - MarketWatch
About 20% of Asia Hedge Funds Shut Since January 2008 - Bloomberg

HOUSING
Mortgage Modification Bill Faces Trouble in Senate - Wash. Post
Santa Clara Co. Prices vs. Foreclosures - View from Silicon Valley
Home Prices Set to Fall to 2002 Levels - The Truth About Mortgage
Robert Shiller - Psychology and the Housing Market - Seattle Bubble

FED/TREASURY/BANKING
Fed to maintain support for struggling economy - AP
U.S. faces too many regulators: executives - Reuters
The Fed: Our Next Troubled Bank? - iStockAnalyst
FDIC's Bair: No bank is too big to fail - CNN/Money

INTERESTING
Spain plans to build casino city - BBC
The Pipe Organ That Steve Jobs Destroyed... - Silicon Valley Insider
New Evidence of Torture Prison in Poland - Spiegel Online
Nebraka police arrest naked and reckless driver - AP

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Zombie bank

Monday, April 27, 2009

This song is a real "earworm", so be careful (via the Mortgage Lender Implode-O-Meter).

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Bank of America dumps Countrywide name

Here's a shocker - Bank of America deems the "Countrywide" name so tarnished by the events of the last year that it can't bear to keep it hanging around. This report has all the details.

Bank of America Corp. has dropped the Countrywide name from its mortgage operations, shedding a 40-year-old brand that had become synonymous with risky lending practices that helped fuel the U.S. housing boom and subsequent bust.

Founded in 1969 by Angelo Mozilo and David Loeb, Countrywide Financial Corp. had been the largest U.S. mortgage lender before Bank of America acquired it last July for $2.5 billion, after rising defaults and an inability to tap capital markets drove Countrywide near collapse.

Bank of America has renamed the Countrywide business Bank of America Home Loans, and begun changing signs on the company's lending offices. The largest U.S. bank expects to finish integrating Countrywide's operations this year.
If there's one thing the world desperately needs to help it get past the housing bubble and subsequent bust, it's for the Countrywide name to just go away.

Having lived near the company headquarters in Southern California as the housing bubble inflated and then met its pin, the sight of new offices popping up like they were Starbucks was really quite annoying - everyone kind of giggled when they spotted a new sign going up as they reflected on how much the price of their home was going up.

If anyone from the Agoura Hills area can provide a comment as to the fate of the massive office buildings that were being constructed just off of the 101 freeway, it would be greatly appreciated.

The image that, in my view, serves as a better reminder of the Countrywide era is below:
IMAGE Now, that was a bit creepy...

After doing a Google image search on "Countrywide", the image above pops up on the first page but it had a familiar file name of 07-10-05b_countrywide_memo_1.jpg, which was immediately recognized as one of my own.

Then, there's a link to "More from www.iaconoresearch.com" on the Google page (that's where I stick a lot of images for the blog) which gets you to a whole treasure trove of images that have appeared here over the years.

A nice little stroll down memory lane...

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Low flying planes freak-out New Yorkers

A photo op for one of President Obama's planes flying low over the Statue of Liberty apparently caused quite a stir this morning - there's more in this report from Reuters.

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Weekly commentary on precious metals

Big news for the precious metals markets came from China last week when the Xinhua News Agency published comments made by Hu Xiaolian, head of the State Administration of Foreign Exchange, indicating that China's gold reserves had increased by 454 tonnes since 2003. Apparently, they were required to report the new total to the IMF and made a public disclosure at the same time, however, it is not at all clear why there were no previous updates in recent years.

This almost doubled their previous reserve total of 600 tonnes and vaulted China into sixth place on the World Gold Council's list of official gold holdings as noted in this item last week. With almost $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves and an increasingly vocal dislike of the U.S. dollar in recent months, this big gain comes as no surprise to most analysts, however, the magnitude of the increase in dollar terms was mostly overlooked in media reports.

This addition amounts to only $13 billion - less than one percent of their foreign exchange reserves - and boosts their "percent of reserves held as gold" from 0.9 percent to just 1.6 percent. The "rule of thumb" for western central banks is a stockpile of 15 percent, about ten times China's new total, and most analysts expect thousands more tonnes to be purchased.

Prices for both gold and silver were buoyed by the news late in the week but, after two months of mostly lower prices, the metals were due for a rebound. For the week, the price of gold rose five percent to end at $913 an ounce and spot silver surged nine percent to close at $12.89 an ounce.

As a result of this move back up above the $880 level, buy indicators for both gold positions in the model portfolio - Gold Bullion and the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) - have been changed from green back to yellow.

It will be important to keep an eye on the world's most popular gold ETF since, for the first time this year, metal recently exited their vaults as shown to the right. Inventory has declined by 23.2 tonnes since April 16th after an impressive addition of almost 350 tonnes since the first of the year.
IMAGE Interestingly, mainstream financial media outlets such as Reuters and Bloomberg now routinely report changes in GLD inventory in their gold reports and also compare their stockpile to official country holdings around the world, something that I've been doing for years. In fact, I remember being disappointed early last year about not being mentioned in an article in the Wall Street Journal after a reporter called to follow up on one of my articles about the GLD inventory passing China's official holdings of 600 tonnes.

It's was ironic to see these two items in the news together last week.

Buying in India has supported the gold price in recent days as the world's most price-sensitive buyers have been on strike for most of the year, only appearing when sub-$900 an ounce prices were to be had as today's important Akshaya Tritiya festival neared. This is one of the four most important days of the year for Hindus and is considered an auspicious day for buying long-term assets such as gold, a legend stating that any venture begun on Akshaya Tritiya will bring prosperity.

The recent surge in enthusiasm for the gold price, while welcome, should be tempered by the knowledge that, according to GFMS, about 500 tonnes of scrap gold entered the market during the first quarter of 2009. This is the equivalent of an entire year's worth of scrap metal and exceeds the record 469 tonnes added to gold ETFs around the world over the same period. While I'm sure that prices for precious metals will go much higher at some point, making such a move in the near term will be difficult absent another flight to safety, something that is now looking more likely than it did a few weeks ago.

[The above is excerpted from yesterday's Weekend Update at the companion investment website Iacono Research. To learn more about investing in natural resources using ETFs, stocks, and mutual funds, see this description or sign up for a free trial.]

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Full Disclosure: Long gold bullion and GLD

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Ideal U.S. interest rate is minus 5 percent?

The more you look at monetary policy both in the U.S. and around the world, the more you get the feeling that we're having a "Tacoma Narrows Bridge moment" where strong winds have been blowing for decades and the fundamentally flawed underlying design of the system is causing ever more severe oscillations.

From the Financial Times comes this report on a new Fed study about interest rates.

The ideal interest rate for the US economy in current conditions would be minus 5 per cent, according to internal analysis prepared for the Federal Reserve’s last policy meeting.

The analysis was based on a so-called Taylor-rule approach that estimates an appropriate interest rate based on unemployment and inflation.

A central bank cannot cut interest rates below zero. However, the staff research suggests the Fed should maintain unconventional policies that provide stimulus roughly equivalent to an interest rate of minus 5 per cent.
A growing number of observers are of the opinion that everything that central banks have been doing for the last twenty years has been unconventional, but that won't stop them from continuing down the current path.

There's another Fed meeting this week and, given the recent surge in bond yields, don't be surprised if we get another QE announcement ("quantitative easing") to push up prices for Treasuries once again.

The very thought of what might happen to all those "green shoots" and "glimmers of hope" in our nascent economic recovery if 30-year mortgage rates were to soar past five percent again (an idea that would have sounded preposterous just a few years ago) is almost too painful to contemplate.

Here's how things worked out for "Galloping Gertie" in Washington, back in 1940.



Skip right to about the three minute mark to see how it ends up.

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Peter Schiff at the NYC "End the Fed" Rally

Is it possible that the End the Fed movement could actually gather steam? The co-sponsor list for Rep. Ron Paul's bill to audit the central bank has grown to 91. That's encouraging.

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Monday morning links

TOP STORIES
World on flu alert as swine virus spreads - BBC
GM to cut 21,000 US factory jobs, shed Pontiac - AP
Default Rates Reach ‘Eye-Popping’ Levels in March - Bloomberg
IEA Sees Oil-Supply Crunch by 2013 on Slow Investment - Bloomberg
G.M.’s Ever-Changing Art of Financial Forecasting - NY Times
The Restructuring of Global Oil Demand - Gregor
U.S. toxic-asset plan stirs fears - LA Times
The IMF's Gold Gambit - WSJ

MARKETS/INVESTING
Flu set to bug Wall Street - CNN/Money
Oil falls below $49 amid uncertain outlook - AP
Gold hits 4-week high as flu fears spook markets - Reuters
Money Doesn't Grow On Trees - Hussman Funds
Thank Uncle Sam for the rally - MSNBC

ECONOMY
Economists see more job losses, 9.8% unemployment - USA Today
California budget fixes on May 19 ballot are mostly shams and frauds - LA Times
The One Trillion Commercial Real Estate Time Bomb - Zero Hedge
Green shoots will not mean healthy roots - Guardian
Summers: 'Unremitting freefall' ended - CNN/Money

INTERNATIONAL
Swine flu fears grip world markets - AP
UK Quantitative Easing in pictures - FT Alphaville
IMF says national deficits to remain sky-high - FT
Irish Banks May Report EU22.5 Billion of Loan Losses - Bloomberg
Mexico Peso Falls on Concern Swine Flu to Deepen Slump - Bloomberg
Japan expects economy to shrink a record 3.3% in fiscal '09 - MarketWatch
ECB Likely to Make Moderate Rate Cut, Quaden Says - Bloomberg
EU health minister: Don't travel to Mexico or US - AP

HOUSING
High-end mortgages get easier - MSNBC
Fannie Mae Creates Housing Mirage With Bum Loans - Bloomberg
B of A rebranding 'toxic' Countrywide lending operation - LA Times
Home sales data hint worst might be over - Lansing Journal

FED/TREASURY/BANKING
Paulson’s ‘Gift’ to Lewis Delivered at Gunpoint - Bloomberg
Geithner, as Member and Overseer, Forged Ties to Finance Club - NY Times
At meeting, Fed to weigh options to revive economy - AP
Fed study puts ideal US interest rate at -5% - FT

INTERESTING
Flu Special Report: The Basics - LiveScience
The Starting Point: Salmonella outbreaks and vanquished pirates - Yahoo! News
A Workers’ Paradise Found Off Japan’s Coast - NY Times
Americans Accused of Stealing Fuel in Iraq - NY Times

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This week in The Economist

Sunday, April 26, 2009

Everyone seems to be fascinated with the graphic for this week's Economist cover story.
IMAGE It is a scary image to be sure and stock market bears are no doubt salivating along with the large fish to the right, prompting the rhetorical question, "Do fish have saliva glands?"

To me, however, the more frightening graphic in this week's Economist is the table below.

It's been a little while since I've looked closely at these stats, dutifully collated and published each and every week in the final few pages of the print edition, but never before have I seen so many negative numbers.
IMAGE The two double-digit negative numbers for 2009 GDP growth in Latvia and Iceland are particularly troublesome. What are the odds of similar numbers showing up for Japan, Germany, and elsewhere? The double-digit unemployment numbers are bothersome as well.

ooo
This week's cartoon: IMAGE

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Meredith Whitney on the banking system

If you want to get a good inside look at the U.S. banking system, have a listen to this half-hour Bloomberg interview with uber-analyst Meredith Whitney.


You'd think they would review these freeze frames because that's what thousands of people see before they hit the play button, but, apparently not.

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Sunday morning links

TOP STORIES
Finance ministers encouraged but wary over economy - AP
Four banks closed by regulators, credit crunch shakes out - MarketWatch
Swine flu outbreak declared 'public health emergency' - LA Times
FACTBOX: Economic costs of a flu pandemic - Reuters
Spread of Bubonic Plague, 1347-1351 - Infectious Greed
After an Off Year, Wall Street Pay Is Bouncing Back - NY Times
Markets Cheer Stress Test Double Speak - Naked Capitalism
World Gold Council: Gold conspiracy would dwarf Madoff - Investigate

MARKETS/INVESTING
Oil at $50 not enough for investment-OPEC head - Reuters
India’s gold and silver imports begin to thrive - Commodity Online
UP AND DOWN WALL STREET: Shareholders Be Damned! - Barron's
The China gold announcement is not that significant - Credit Writedowns
OPEC, Asia Ministers Call for Oil-Market Oversight - Bloomberg
The Restructuring of Global Oil Demand - Gregor

ECONOMY
Preview: GDP Probably Shrank as Companies Cut Back - Bloomberg
Recession, Far From Over, Already Setting Records - NY Times
Some Make Do in the Recession by Moving In With Dad and Mom - Wash. Post
Better Than Expected Economic Data? - Beat the Press
How a 5% drop in GDP can look good - MarketWatch

INTERNATIONAL
First-time British home buyers still absent - MarketWatch
The capital well is running dry and some economies will wither - Telegraph
IMF Considers Bond Issue to Raise Funds for Lending Programs - Bloomberg
Trichet, Lagarde Question IMF Estimate of Bank Writedowns - Bloomberg
British economy shrinks at fastest pace for 30 years - Telegraph
Spain's unemployment rate leaps to record high - Times Online
Taiwan, China in landmark financial services deal - Reuters
Can science save the oil sands? - Globe & Mail

HOUSING
Spring Home Sales Damp, But Young Buyers Bloom - NPR
No recovery seen for housing until late 2010 - O.C. Register
More Cold Water for U.S. Housing Marke - Seeking Alpha
Home Builders, Preparing for a Thaw - NY Times

FED/TREASURY/BANKING
Fed to stay aggressive, but prepare for recovery - AFP
Musings on Structural Challenges to the Financial System - Naked Capitalism
Investors Comment on Fed Model for Stress Tests - Bloomberg
Who Else Did Hank Paulson Push Around? - Clusterstock

INTERESTING
Nancy Pelosi fires back at Jon Stewart - LA Times
Susan Boyle on South Park (Video) - Mashable
Basis for Male Promiscuity Questioned - Live Science

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